New Jersey’s goal of providing residents electricity without generating carbon pollution by 2050 is attainable and affordable, 但可能需要大量使用州外电力, Princeton professor Jesse Jenkins told a state legislative committee on Monday.
Jenkins, assistant professor of mechanical and aerospace engineering and the Andlinger Center for Energy the Environment, leads a team of researchers who modeled pathways to meet New Jersey’s stated policy goal of providing 75% of power by renewables and achieving a 100% carbon-free power supply by 2050. 上周一，他描述了实现这一目标的选项. 新泽西州参议院环境与能源委员会的菲尔·墨菲.
“这项研究的目标是提供一个独立的, 详细评估关键技术和政策选项和选择, 以及它们对利记官网app下载实现100%清洁电力的影响,” Jenkins said.
Jenkins’ team of energy researchers at the Princeton ZERO Lab modeled three broad scenarios for the state and found varied results:
- A 基于2020年底出台的政策的“一切如常”情景, 这就排除了到2050年实现无碳电力供应的目标. In this scenario, 电力供应成本将下降19%，但无碳电力供应将无法实现.
- A scenario that modeled outcomes based on policies that have been committed to but not yet implemented, 包括到2050年实现75%的可再生电力和100%的无碳电力的目标, 与该州现有的目标一起，到那时全州范围内减少80%的温室气体排放. The study found that the most affordable way to meet these goals was for New Jersey to buy a significant amount of clean energy from out of state.
- A scenario in which New Jersey decarbonizes its grid primarily by building in-state clean energy resources, 比如海上风电场和太阳能项目的开发. 这种设想的结果将允许该州实现其目标, 但对新泽西州的电力客户来说，这将是更昂贵的.
The findings show that meeting New Jersey’s goal of procuring a carbon-free electric supply by mid-century is possible, even as peak electric demand is anticipated to grow by up to 85% from rapid building and vehicle electrification.
“First and most importantly, a transition to 100% carbon-free electricity is feasible while maintaining necessary reliability and with reductions in bulk electricity supply costs,” Jenkins said.
Jenkins told legislators that the lowest-cost option would take advantage of New Jersey’s membership in a multi-state electric grid called the PJM Interconnect. The grid, 由众多公用事业和电力生产商组成, stretches through Pennsylvania, 新泽西州和马里兰州(最初的“P, J and M”) to North Carolina, and as far west as parts of Kentucky, Michigan, Indiana and Illinois. Under the cheapest option, New Jersey would save money by importing solar and wind electricity from states with lower land costs and better renewable resource quality, 比如来自北卡罗来纳州的太阳能或来自印第安纳州的风能. 该策略表示该状态的最便宜路径, 前提是其他州也不采取类似的激进措施来降低电力部门的碳排放. In that case, greater demand for renewables across the region would drive up the cost of imports for New Jersey, 促使人们依赖更昂贵的州内资源.
The option of increasing electricity imports would also reverse New Jersey’s traditional reliance on in-state energy. Currently, the state only imports about 10% of its power. Under the lowest-cost option, 到2050年，这一比例将上升到65%左右, said Qingyu Xu, 该研究的首席研究员，詹金斯零实验室的博士后研究学者, who added his comments via email.
如果新泽西选择在本州生产更多的电力, it could scale up projects such as offshore wind and smaller-scale distributed solar installations, 在现行政策下，哪些是国家的优先事项. 但徐指出，这将涉及更多的国家纳税人的成本.
“We find that the lowest-cost pathway to a carbon-free electricity supply departs in important ways from New Jersey’s current approach to policy, 哪些国家优先考虑州内能源和分布式能源," Jenkins said.
Cheaper options would include keeping the state’s three commercial nuclear reactors open beyond 2030 and deploying large, “公用事业规模”的太阳能项目，由于规模经济，价格更低. The existing nuclear power plants also provide a hedge against higher costs for imported renewable electricity if other states across the region pursue decarbonization goals, 或者如果天然气价格或可再生能源建设成本高于预期.
Jenkins said policymakers need to evaluate the benefits or drawbacks of the different ways to source power because their implications extend far beyond electricity supply costs to include effects on the economy and labor force, environment, and quality of life.
虽然不受环保主义者的青睐，也很难选址, 建立天然气工厂被认为是一种适用于所有场景的策略. 而新的天然气工厂对污染和额外的温室气体提出了重要的担忧, Jenkins explained that increasing generating capacity would keep the cost of power down and help meet growing peak demands from electric vehicles and the adoption of electric heat pumps to efficiently heat water and buildings. 詹金斯说，总发电量来自天然气和相关的空气污染, greenhouse gas emissions, 随着时间的推移，与天然气开采相关的影响将稳步下降, 特别是如果该州现有的核电站得到维护的话. 在这两种情况下，开发以满足脱碳目标, 这些电厂将需要使用零碳燃料, 比如到2050年可持续生产氢或氨, 到那时，它们将只有在风能和太阳能都基本不可用的情况下才能运行.
议员们说，负担能力很重要, 他们将不得不权衡这与进口更多电力的想法. 他们向詹金斯询问如何让电动汽车充电基础设施更容易使用, to which he replied that additional public investments in charging infrastructure are important, 正如之前在委员会会议上提出的一项决议.
After the testimony, Sen. Bob Smith, the committee chair, 他说，他会接受詹金斯的提议，模拟其他场景，并进一步讨论.
“We’re going to put you on speed dial,” said Smith, 谁代表萨默塞特和米德尔塞克斯的部分地区.
这项新研究在同行评议之前作为工作文件发表，供公众传播. 该研究团队正在根据这份报告准备额外的出版物，以供同行评议, which may be revised.
Additional authors of “New Jersey’s Pathway to a 100% Carbon-Free Electricity Supply: Policy and Technology Choices Through 2050” include former Princeton postdoctoral researcher Chuan Zhang, 现在是北京大学的助理教授, 以及利记的副研究学者Neha Patankar.
This project was supported by Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) through Princeton E-ffiliates Partnership.